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Hamburg vs Borussia Dortmund

Fri 22 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Hamburg win: 42.3%

Draw: 19.3%

Borussia Dortmund win: 38.4%

Predicted: Hamburg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.29

More corners: Hamburg (51.4% home / 48.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Borussia Dortmund

Yes

Probability Borussia Dortmund wins or draws: 57.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (42.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Borussia Dortmund win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (58.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.